Changdian Technology (600584): Semiconductor autonomy accelerates advanced packaging leader to meet the possibility of gold

Changdian 北京桑拿洗浴保健 Technology (600584): Semiconductor autonomy accelerates advanced packaging leader to meet the possibility of gold
Semiconductor autonomy is accelerating, and packaging and testing leaders benefit significantly. Hisilicon has accelerated its autonomy. Huawei ‘s chip self-sufficiency has accelerated. According to Bernstein research data, Hisense ‘s revenue in 2007 was only $ 200 million, and its revenue in 2018 was 75.7.3 billion U.S. dollars, Hisense’s revenue is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the next 3 to 5 years. SEMI official website information indicates that by 2023, Hisense’s procurement costs are expected to be approximately 16 billion U.S. dollars, of which packaging and testing costs account for about 25% of procurement costs.That is to say, the market space of Hisense’s packaging and testing orders is expected to reach 4 billion US dollars in 2023. Changdian Technology, as a domestic packaging and testing leader, is expected to meet the potential of gold development. Innovative Changdian, advanced packaging technology leading the “post-Moore era” Innovative Changdian, actively deploying advanced packaging technology: Changdian Technology includes Jiangyin base, South Korea base, Singapore base, and actively deploys advanced packaging technologies such as WLCSP / FoWLB / SiP / Bumping.Former Changdian mainly includes Jiangyin D3, Luzhou Suqian factory and Changdian Advanced; Xingke Jinpeng includes Jiangyin factory (Shanghai moved to Jiangyin), South Korean factory and Singapore factory; In addition, Changdian also set up JSCK in South Korea, mainly for brand customersProvide SiP packaging products.According to the company’s 2018 annual report, Changdian Advanced is positioned as a high-end packaging and testing product and achieved revenue of 24 in 2018.5.4 billion yuan, Xingke Jinpeng achieved revenue 11.With 69 billion U.S. dollars, Changdian Korea’s SiP achieved revenue7.$ 8.9 billion. Investment recommendations we expect in 2019?In 2021, the company’s revenue will be 236.53 ppm, 264.9.3 billion, 303.26 trillion, a ten-year growth rate of -0.85%, 12.01%, 14.47%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 44.89 million yuan, 4.8.5 billion, 11.8 billion yuan, an annual growth rate of 104.78%, 979.62%, 143.55%; corresponding earnings per share are 0.03 yuan, 0.30 yuan, 0.74 yuan.Since the company is still in the merger period with Xingke Jinpeng’s business, the PE estimation method is not applicable. We use the PS estimation method and according to our statistics on global semiconductor packaging and testing manufacturers (including Tongfu Microelectronics, Huatian Technology, Jingyuan Electronics,Xinbang Technology, Amkor), the current semiconductor packaging and testing industry PS is estimated to be about 1.54, corresponding to the company’s total city level of 407 next year.99 ppm corresponds to a previous budget of 25.45 yuan, covering for the first time, give a buy rating. Risks indicate that the business growth is uncertain, the integration is less than expected, the goodwill is impaired, and the debt ratio is too high, resulting in increased financial costs and other risks.